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With just four days to Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a commanding 10-point lead over former President Trump in Virginia among likely voters, according to a new poll by Roanoke College.
The Trump campaign is hoping to flip the Old Dominion State red after losing in 2016 and 2020, with the former president making a last-minute stop in Salem on Saturday for a campaign rally. No Republican presidential candidate has won Virginia since former President George W. Bush's re-election in 2004.
Only 2% of likely voters say they are undecided and another 2% say they will vote for someone other than the five candidates on the ballot, according to the poll.
Harris leads Trump by 51% to 41%, with independent Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver both polling at 2%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein is polling at 1%.
The economy was named as the most important issue by 43% of respondents, followed by abortion (20%) and immigration (12%). Foreign affairs (8%) came in next, followed by crime (3%).
In the U.S. Senate race, Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao by 51% to 40%.
The poll interviewed 851 likely registered voters in Virginia from Oct. 25-29 and has a margin of error of 4.6%.
Several polls out of the state have shown Harris with a comfortable lead over former President Trump since President Biden withdrew from the ticket and Harris clinched the Democratic Party’s nomination.
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Her rise has marked a significant turnaround at the top of the Democratic ticket in Virginia. A Fox News poll in June had Biden and Trump in a dead heat.
Biden swept Virginia in 2020 by more than 10 points, and Hillary Clinton beat Trump by more than five points there in 2016 — although Trump went on to win the presidency.
The GOP has been making progress in the state, with the 2021 election of Gov. Glenn Youngkin as the first Republican to be elected to the governorship since 2009 and further success in the 2022 midterms and the state’s 2023 off-year elections.
"With so few undecided voters, it’s a tough uphill climb for Trump," said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Roanoke College.
"Democrats continue to take advantage of early voting. Republicans are catching up, but they need massive turnout on Election Day."
A large majority (85%) of those who have not yet voted are very certain of their choice and another 9% are somewhat certain. Two-thirds (66%) are very enthusiastic about voting, and another 17% are somewhat enthusiastic, according to the poll.
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About 95% of Democrats support Harris, and she leads 49%-36% among independents. Trump is supported by 90% of Republicans, per the poll.
Of the 851 responses to the poll, 19 (2%) were landline interviews, 450 (53%) were cellphone interviews and 382 (45%) were completed by text to web.
Virginia has become a focal point for election integrity, with the Supreme Court this week greenlighting the state's efforts to remove possible noncitizen voter registrations.
